Secular Cycles

Front Cover
Princeton University Press, Jul 20, 2009 - Social Science - 360 pages

Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles.



Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.


An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

 

Selected pages

Contents

The Theoretical Background
1
The Plantagenet Cycle 11501485
35
The TudorStuart Cycle 14851730
81
The Capetian Cycle 11501450
111
The Valois Cycle 14501660
143
The Republican Cycle 35030 BCE
176
The Principate Cycle 30 BCE285 CE
211
The Muscovy Cycle 14601620
240
The Romanov Cycle 16201922
261
Chapter 10 General Conclusions
303
Acknowledgments
315
References Cited
317
Index
341
Copyright

Other editions - View all

Secular Cycles
Peter Turchin,Sergey A. Nefedov
Limited preview - 2009
Secular Cycles
Peter Turchin,Sergey A. Nefedov
No preview available - 2009

Common terms and phrases

amount army average became beginning Black capacity carrying cause Central civil civil war collapse commoners consumption continued crisis cycle death decades declined demographic dynamics early economic effect elite Empire England English epidemics estates estimated example expansion factions factor families famine fifteenth figure fluctuations followed forced fourteenth century France French gentry grain grew growing half households important income increased indicate internal Italy land late later least less major middle military million mobility Moscow nobility noble numbers pattern peak peasants percent period phase political population growth pressure probably production proportion reached real wages rebellion Region reign relatively rents result rise Roman Rome rural Russia secular cycles senators sixteenth century social society sociopolitical instability Source stagflation status structure substantial suggest territory theory third tion trend urban variables wars

About the author (2009)

Peter Turchin is professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and adjunct professor of mathematics at the University of Connecticut. Sergey A. Nefedov is senior research scientist at the Institute of History and Archaeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural Branch.

Bibliographic information

TitleSecular Cycles
AuthorsPeter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov
Editionillustrated
PublisherPrinceton University Press, 2009
ISBN1400830680, 9781400830688
Length360 pages
Subjects ›  › 

Business & Economics / Economic History
Business & Economics / Economics / Theory
Political Science / General
Political Science / History & Theory
Social Science / Demography
Social Science / Sociology / General
  
Export CitationBiBTeX EndNote RefMan