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additional unit analysis annual Appendix Table applications approach average inventory backorder batch Bernoulli process binomial distribution binomial probability breakeven calculate carrying cost chance column conditional probability conditional profit criterion daily sales decision alternative decision maker demand determine discrete random variable EOQ model equation estimate example expected loss expected profit expected value experiment exponential smoothing fair coin Figure forecast formula illustrated inputs joint probability machine management information system marginal probability mean method minimize month moving average mutually exclusive normal curve normal distribution normal probability distribution occur operations research optimum number ordering cost output P(AB payoff perfect information player Poisson distribution possible outcomes POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES PROBABILITIES UNDER STATISTICAL probability of selling problem purchasing workload quantitative reorder result situation solution standard deviation statistically independent stock action strategy symbols tails techniques toss total number trend line