Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties

Professor of Geography Vaclav Smil, Vaclav Smil

MIT Press, 2003 - Science - 427 pages

In Energy at the Crossroads, Vaclav Smil considers the twenty-first century's crucial question: how to reconcile the modern world's unceasing demand for energy with the absolute necessity to preserve the integrity of the biosphere. With this book he offers a comprehensive, accessible guide to today's complex energy issues -- how to think clearly and logically about what is possible and what is desirable in our energy future.

After a century of unprecedented production growth, technical innovation, and expanded consumption, the world faces a number of critical energy challenges arising from unequal resource distribution, changing demand patterns, and environmental limitations. The fundamental message of Energy at the Crossroads is that our dependence on fossil fuels must be reduced not because of any imminent resource shortages but because the widespread burning of oil, coal, and natural gas damages the biosphere and presents increasing economic and security problems as the world relies on more expensive supplies and Middle Eastern crude oil.

Smil begins with an overview of the twentieth century's long-term trends and achievements in energy production. He then discusses energy prices, the real cost of energy, and "energy linkages" -- the effect energy issues have on the economy, on quality of life, on the environment, and in wartime. He discusses the pitfalls of forecasting, giving many examples of failed predictions and showing that unexpected events can disprove complex models. And he examines the pros and cons not only of fossil fuels but also of alternative fuels such as hydroenergy, biomass energy, wind power, and solar power. Finally, he considers the future, focusing on what really matters, what works, what is realistic, and which outcomes are most desirable.

Contents

• Longterm Trends and Achievements: 1
• A Unique Century: 3
• Changing Resource Base: 10
• Technical Innovations: 21
• The Rising Importance of Electricity: 31
• Trading Energy: 44
• Consumption Trends: 49
• Looking Back and Looking Ahead: 60
• Energy Linkages: 63
• Energy and the Economy: 65
• Deconstructing Energy Intensities: 71
• Energy Prices: 81
• Real Costs of Energy: 88
• Energy and the Quality of Life: 97
• Energy and the Environment: 105
• Energy and War: 116
• Against Forecasting: 121
• Failing Endeavors: 122
• Conversion Techniques: 124
• Primary Energy Requirements: 137
• Demand for Electricity: 145
• Energy Prices and Intensities: 149
• Substitutions of Energy Resources: 161
• Complex Models and Realities: 167
• Unexpected Happenings: 172
• In Favor of Normative Scenarios: 178
• Fossil Fuel Futures: 181
• Is the Decline of Global Crude Oil Production Imminent?: 184
• Different Perspectives on the Oil Era: 195
• How Far Can Natural Gas Go?: 213
• What Will Be Coals Role?: 229
• Nonfossil Energies: 239
• Hydroenergys Potential and Limits: 246
• Biomass Energies: 259
• Electricity from Wind: 272
• Direct Solar Conversions: 284
• How Promising Are Other Renewables?: 290
• Infrastructural Changes and the Future Hydrogen Economy: 296
• Is There a Future for Nuclear Energy?: 309
• Possible Futures: 317
• Efficient Use of Energy: 318
• Beyond Higher Efficiency: 332
• Energy and the Future of the Biosphere: 339
• What Really Matters: 349
• What Does and Does Not Help: 354
• Realities and a Wish List: 362
• Units and Abbreviations: 375
• Prefixes: 377
• Acronyms: 379
• References: 383
• Index: 419

About the author

Vaclav Smil is the author of more than thirty books on energy, the environment, food, and the history of technical advances, including Harvesting the Biosphere: What We Have Taken from Nature, published by the MIT Press. He is a Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba. In 2010 he was named by Foreign Policy as one of the Top 100 Global Thinkers.

Bibliographic information

• Title: Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties
• Authors: Professor of Geography Vaclav Smil, Vaclav Smil
• Edition: illustrated, reprint
• Publisher: MIT Press, 2003
• ISBN: 0262194929, 9780262194921
• Length: 427 pages
• Subjects: Science / Energy; Science / Environmental Science