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accuracy actual bad right ballot bellwether Bush campaign Chapter coefficients column congressional contests correlated Democratic Durbin-Watson statistic economic growth Eisenhower election forecasting election survey Electoral College electoral vote share Erikson estimate evaluation example explanation exposure Fifth Republic Figure forecasting model fourth quarter French Gallup Poll Gaullist governorships growth rate House Election House seat change IFOP income growth incumbent party Incumbent Party Seat incumbent seat independent variables Jacobson lead legislative legislatures macroeconomic midterm election Mitterrand National Assembly elections national election noneconomic issues number of seats one-tail Palo Alto County partisan change party identification percent political pollsters popular vote share president president's party presidential approval presidential model presidential popularity Presidential vote problems pundits R-squared races Reagan reelection regression Republican rule sample scores seat change seats exposed second quarter Senate election significant at 05 standardized coefficients statistically significant Table Unemployment victory vote choice voters White House