Forecasting ElectionsAll political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description. |
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actual bad right ballot bellwether Bush campaign Chapter coefficients column congressional contests correlated Democratic Durbin-Watson statistic economic growth Eisenhower election forecasting election survey Electoral College electoral vote share Erikson evaluation example explanation exposure Fifth Republic Figure forecasting model fourth quarter French Gallup Poll Gaullist governorships growth rate House Election House model House seat change IFOP income growth incumbent party Incumbent Party Seat incumbent seat independent variables Jacobson lead legislative legislatures loss macroeconomic midterm election National Assembly elections national election noneconomic issues number of seats one-tail Palo Alto County partisan change party identification percent political popular vote share president president's party presidential approval Presidential Election Outcomes Presidential Model presidential popularity Presidential Vote problems pundits R-squared races Reagan reelection regression Republican rule sample scores seats exposed second quarter Senate election Senate model significant at 05 standardized coefficients statistically significant Table Unemployment victory vote choice voters White House