Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science

Front Cover
Oxford University Press, Oct 24, 1991 - Science - 336 pages
0 Reviews
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
 

What people are saying - Write a review

We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.

Contents

SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
85
COMBINING EXPERT OPINIONS
169
Appendix A Mathematical Framework and Interpretation
273
Appendix B Standard normal inverse normal Chi square coefficient of agreement coefficient of concordance
285

Other editions - View all

Common terms and phrases

Popular passages

Page 7 - Despite a widespread belief to the contrary, objective studies indicate that even though the amount of human tragedy would be greatly increased in the postwar world, the increase would not preclude normal and happy lives for the majority of survivors and their descendants.

References to this book

All Book Search results »

Bibliographic information