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adjustment loans Africa analysis Appendix BESD binding Bocconl University budget constraint budget surplus Centro Studi Centro Studl Luca CEPR coefficient conditional aid conditionality convex function crisis indicators curve debt decision to liberalize developing countries DEVELOPMENT CENTRE 21 Drazen economic crisis effects empirical Exports external shocks fact Finance Statistics Frances Stewart funds Ghana government's higher values importable incentives individuals interest rate shocks INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT CENTRE International Monetary Fund level of utility lower macroeconomic Milan multilateral agency negative October optimal Oxford University political acceptability constraint political support basis political variables population Probit problem PROPOSITION protectionist regimes Queen Elizabeth House real interest rate regressions relative price Rlccardo Rodrik September 1990 shift significant solution Structural Adjustment STUDI LUCA D'AGLIANO Tanzania tariff level terms of trade trade liberalization trade policy trade reforms trade regime U.S. dollars University of Brescia University of Oxford urban elites World Bank