Risk: a philosophical introduction to the theory of risk evaluation and management
The book is an introduction to the theory of risk with an emphasis on its philosophical dimension. It deals with such issues as: What is the conceptual nature of risk? What role does the value system of those involved play in risk assessment? What is the nature of the responsibility of risk managers towards the constituency they serve? The book is not addressed solely to philosophers, however, but to those who are concerned professionally with risk assessment or risk management. No book currently on the market provides a comparable coherent clarification of the field and so effectively demolishes the fallacies and misunderstandings that are rife within it.
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THE NATURE OF RISK
NEGATIVITY EVALUATION AND COMPARISON
PROBABILITY AND ITS RAMIFICATIONS
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accident Accordingly action Amos Tversky analysis arises automatically babilities Baruch Fischhoff basis bottom alternative catastrophe avoidance ceptability chance Chauncey Starr choice circumstances clearly conservatism consider considerations context cost Daniel Kahneman death decision decision theory depicted in Figure determining dilemma disaster disparity of risks economic effective zerohood effectively zero ethical eventuations example expected value expected-value comparisons face fact gamble harm human INDIFFERENCE CURVES individual involved issue judgmental loss lottery magnitude management of risks matter measure ment midpoint negativity nuclear operate outcome parameters PASCAL'S WAGER Paul Slovic Petersburg paradox political poses potential preferable principle of catastrophe probabilistic public policy question real possibility reasonable reduce represent risk assessment risk evaluation risk management risk situation risk-taking rule safety simply social society sort standard subjective substantial sure sure-thing equivalent technological hazards thalidomide theoretical things threat threshold tion top alternative Type I errors uncertainty unrealism various