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aggregate Altonji applied general equilibrium approach assumed assumptions average Bayesian behavior budget constraint capital coefficient component constant consumer consumption function corner solutions credibility cycle deadweight loss Deaton demand discussion dual conditions econometric Econometric Society Econometrica effects elasticity empirical equilibrium models estimation Euler equation evaluation evidence example expenditure forecast functional form Hendry households hypothesis implies imprecise income changes indirect utility function inferences innovation instrumental variables interest rate intertemporal substitution interval issues Journal Keynesian labor income labour supply lagged Leamer life-cycle model linear liquidity constraints loan rate macroeconomic MaCurdy Mankiw marginal nonlinear observed optimal panel data percent period permanent income Permanent Income Hypothesis posterior preference parameters primal prior distributions probability problem propensity random random walk rational expectations real rate real wages regression representative sample Section Shoven specification statistical stochastic tests theory tion uncertainty utility function values variance welfare analysis welfare gain Whalley zero