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assets average BANESPA bank lending Bank of Brazil Bayesian BCB's billion Brazilian Budget BVAR capital central bank central government changes cointegrating consumer prices current account December domestic economic endogenous variables expenditure exports external FDI inflows federal government FGTS financing fiscal adjustment foreign Granger causality higher households hyperparameters IBGE impact income income quintile increased indicators inflation targeting International Monetary Fund investments IPCA IPEA June lags lending rates lending spreads liabilities loans macroeconomic MD regime minimum wages monetary policy municipalities output passthrough PDEF percent of GDP period primary deficit primary surplus prior distribution private banks PROES programs public debt public sector public spending quintile real interest payments real interest rates reduced restructuring revenues Sao Paulo SELIC rate shocks social security social spending SSM model Table transmission mechanism transnational enterprises U.S. dollar unit root World Bank