Dangerous Deterrent: Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia
Does the proliferation of nuclear weapons cause ongoing conflicts to diminish or to intensify? The spread of nuclear weapons to South Asia offers an opportunity to investigate this crucial question. Optimistic scholars argue that by threatening to raise the cost of war astronomically, nuclear weapons make armed conflict in South Asia extremely unlikely. Pessimistic scholars maintain that nuclear weapons make the subcontinent war-prone, because of technological, political, and organizational problems. This book argues that nuclear weapons have destabilized the subcontinent, principally because of their interaction with India and Pakistan s territorial preferences and relative military capabilities. These findings challenge both optimistic and pessimistic conventional wisdom and have implications beyond South Asia.
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The Problem of Proliferation
Militarized Behavior During the South Asian Proliferation Process
Terr1torial Preferences and Military Capabilities
The Nonnuclear Period
The De Facto Nuclear Period
The Overt Nuclear Period
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acquisition of nuclear Active Forces Tanks adversary Aggregate Ratio all-out argues Asian attack Author interview Bangladesh behavior Benazir Bhutto Bhutto border China Chinese Cold War Conflict Unending conventional aggression conventional conflict conventional military conventionally danger Delhi despite dissatisf1ed DPRK f1rst facto nuclear period Forces Tanks Combat Ganguly Hagerty incentives India and Pakistan India Pakistan Ratio India:Pak Total Active Indian government Indian leaders Indo-Pakistani conventional Indo-Pakistani relations Kargil conflict Kashmir dispute Kashmir insurgency launch Line of Control militarized disputes military capabilities Nawaz Sharif nonnuclear period North Korean nuclear capability nuclear deterrence nuclear escalation nuclear level nuclear proliferation nuclear weapons overt nuclear P. R. Chari Pakistan Army Pakistan Ratio India:Pak Pakistani leaders political proliferation's Ratio India:Pak Total region result retaliation revisionist Sagan Sharif signif1cant signif1cantly Simla Agreement Sino-Soviet South Asia South Asian security stability/instability paradox subcontinent territorial preferences threat Total Active Forces Ussuri River violence weak Zhenbao Island