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12 months 12-month average 12-month moving average actual adjustment American business amplitude bank deposits base behavior bottom broken line Business Activity business cycle capital expenditures changes characteristic chart commodity prices component cycles composite cycle composite series curve cyclical component cyclical movements dangerous decline demand depression dollar estimate F. D. Newbury factors Federal deficit spending Federal Reserve Federal spending figures important increase Index of Industrial indicators industrial production inventory kO-month component long component long depression long-component cycle long-term trend longer component cycle longer movements major millions money supply months in length OJ OJ OJ peak period ponent cycle r-l r-l r-l ratio reason relative seasonal variations security issues short component shorter cycle shorter fluctuations shorter movements shows single-month statistical steel ingot production steel production textile cycle tion Tons total orders turbine U.S. exports UO-month values Westinghouse Forecasting Method Westinghouse orders York City