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18-MONTH FORECASTS 18-MONTH REGIME 1989 elections agreement Alfonsin Andean Pact APRA Argentina banks Barco billion Blancos Bolivia Borja Brazil campaign candidate capital CENTER LEFT Chile civilian coalition Colombia Colorado Colorado Party Congress conservative current account deficit domestic economic policies economic problems Ecuador elections exchange rate exports favor FERNANDEZ FIVE-YEAR FORECASTS forces foreign debt foreign exchange foreign investment government's groups growth guerrilla High SLIGHTLY increase industry inflation international business INVESTMENT RESTRICTIONS Jaime Lusinchi Jaime Paz Zamora labor Lauca River leaders leftist LEGISLATIVE SEATS Liberal Lusinchi major military regime minister Moderate nationalistic opposition party Paz Estenssoro Pe>ez PEREZ Peronists Peru petroleum Pinochet plebiscite PMDB political popular President presidential Radicals REGIMES & PROBABILITIES REGIMES AND PROBABILITIES Sanguinetti Sarney sector SLIGHTLY LESS social SUPPORT/OPPOSITION tariffs Tupamaros Turmoil Union United Unlikely Unlikely Uncertain Uruguay Venezuela violence vote wage workers