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aggregate demand equations aggregate nominal wage AGGREGATE WAGE DATA assumed average contract wage average wage baseyear bonus payments bonus system Canada CITIBASE conditional expectation contract length contract wages xt contracts of different degree of synchronization Determination and Macroeconomic different length distribution of workers empirical significance ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS estimated equations estimation results excess demand flexibility in Japan four quarters fraction of workers France future wages Germany high wage responsiveness industries IMF ir-weights Italy J-l j-l January 9 Japanese economy likelihood function maximum likelihood estimates MITI/RI Discussion Paper monetary policy nominal wage flexibility output gap percent annual contracts percent of workers performance in Japan quarter contracts quarters in length relatively high wage responsiveness in Japan seasonal pattern second quarter Shunto system spring quarter staggered contract standard errors summer quarter Synchronized Wage Determination synchronized wage setting United Kingdom wage Inflation wages in Japan weights workers across contracts