# An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling

OUP Oxford, May 13, 2010 - Language Arts & Disciplines - 370 pages
Mathematical modelling is increasingly being applied to interpret and predict the dynamics and control of infectious diseases. Applications include predicting the impact of vaccination strategies against common infections and determining optimal control strategies against HIV and malaria.Though many public health and infectious disease researchers are aware that mathematical modelling would be of use to them, few have had any formal training in this area. As a result, they are ill-equipped either to use models or to even critically evaluate the modelling work of other researchers.Though several texts on the mathematical modelling of infectious disease transmission have been published to date, they have either been targeted at modellers, or they have illustrated how mathematical equations have informed the dynamics and control of infectious diseases without explaining howthese equations might be set up and solved. This book is designed to fill this gap. By reading the book and completing the accompanying exercises, readers will understand the basic methods for setting up mathematical models and how and where models can be applied. They will also gain an improved understanding of the factors which influencethe patterns and trends in infectious diseases. This book will be of interest to epidemiologists, public health researchers, policy makers, veterinary scientists, medical statisticians and infectious disease researchers.

### What people are saying -Write a review

We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.

### Contents

 infections transmission and models 1 2 How are models set up? I An introduction to difference equations 13 3 How are models set up? II An introduction to differential equations 41 4 What do models tell us about the dynamics of infections? 63 5 Age patterns 105 6 An introduction to stochastic modelling 149 7 How do models deal with contact patterns? 177 8 Sexually transmitted infections 223
 9 Special topics in infectious disease modelling 283 Further reading 317 Appendix 319 Basic maths 339 Summary of the key equations used in the text 357 Index 365 Copyright