An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling

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OUP Oxford, May 13, 2010 - Language Arts & Disciplines - 370 pages
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Mathematical modelling is increasingly being applied to interpret and predict the dynamics and control of infectious diseases. Applications include predicting the impact of vaccination strategies against common infections and determining optimal control strategies against HIV and malaria.Though many public health and infectious disease researchers are aware that mathematical modelling would be of use to them, few have had any formal training in this area. As a result, they are ill-equipped either to use models or to even critically evaluate the modelling work of other researchers.Though several texts on the mathematical modelling of infectious disease transmission have been published to date, they have either been targeted at modellers, or they have illustrated how mathematical equations have informed the dynamics and control of infectious diseases without explaining howthese equations might be set up and solved. This book is designed to fill this gap. By reading the book and completing the accompanying exercises, readers will understand the basic methods for setting up mathematical models and how and where models can be applied. They will also gain an improved understanding of the factors which influencethe patterns and trends in infectious diseases. This book will be of interest to epidemiologists, public health researchers, policy makers, veterinary scientists, medical statisticians and infectious disease researchers.

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infections transmission and models
2 How are models set up? I An introduction to difference equations
3 How are models set up? II An introduction to differential equations
4 What do models tell us about the dynamics of infections?
5 Age patterns
6 An introduction to stochastic modelling
7 How do models deal with contact patterns?
8 Sexually transmitted infections
9 Special topics in infectious disease modelling
Further reading
Basic maths
Summary of the key equations used in the text

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About the author (2010)

Emilia Vynnycky obtained a BA in Mathematics from Oxford University, followed by an MSc in Operational Research from Southampton University and a PhD in Infectious Disease Modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), where she subsequently worked as a Lecturer until 2003. She is now senior scientist in the Modelling and Economics Unit at the Health Protection Agency (HPA), Centre for Infections. Emilia has worked on modelling the transmission and control of several different infectious diseases including tuberculosis, rubella, pandemic and
seasonal influenza, measles and HIV. Emilia has also led the development of the LSHTM/HPA Infectious Disease Modelling MSc module and summer short course since its inception in 2001 with Richard White, and is currently an honorary Lecturer at LSHTM.

Richard White obtained a BSc (Physics) from Durham University and an MSc (Medical Demography) and PhD (Infectious Disease Modelling) from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He is now Senior Lecturer in Infectious Disease Modelling in the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at LSHTM and a Medical Research Council Methodology Research Fellow. Richard has worked extensively in recent years using mathematical modelling and classical epidemiological techniques to understand the epidemiology and control of sexually transmitted infections/HIV and other infectious diseases in developing countries. Richard is currently involved in modelling projects on the transmission and control of many infectious diseases including HIV,
tuberculosis, herpes simplex virus-2, influenza, human papillomavirus and rift valley fever, in places as diverse as Senegal and Soho. He is associate editor of the journal Sexually Transmitted Infections.

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