Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats

Front Cover
Cornell University Press, 2007 - Berlin (Germany) - 240 pages

Calculating Credibility examines--and ultimately rejects--a fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country's future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America's costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries' credibility by peering into their opponents' past and evaluating their history of keeping or breaking commitments. Power and interests in the current crisis--not past actions--determine the credibility of a threat. Press demonstrates that threats are credible only if backed by sufficient power and only if pursuing important interests. Press believes that Washington's obsession with the dangers of backing down has made U.S. foreign policy unnecessarily rigid. In every competitive environment--sports, gambling, warfare--competitors use feints and bluffs to tremendous advantage. Understanding the real sources of credibility, Press asserts, would permit a more flexible, and more effective, foreign policy.

 

Contents

INTRODUCTION
1
Theories of Credibility
8
German Assessments
42
American and British Assessments
80
American Assessments of Soviet
117
Conclusion
142
NOTES
163
Copyright

Other editions - View all

Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats
Daryl Grayson Press
Limited preview - 2005
Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats
Daryl Grayson Press
No preview available - 2005

Common terms and phrases

administration adversaries adversary's agreed Allied American argued argument Army assess attack balance of power believed Berlin blockade bombers British and French Change chapter clear commitments countries crises crisis Cuba Cuban missile crisis Current Calculus theory Czechoslovakia dangerous decision decisionmakers Defense Deterrence discussed East Germans effect enemies European Balance evidence example expected explained face fact favored fight forces foreign policy France future German military Germany's Hitler ICBMs important interests International invasion issues Italy keeping Kennedy Khrushchev launch leaders major meeting military missiles Murray never noted nuclear October Office Past Actions theory plans Poland Politics position predicts President Press question reasoning record reduce reputation risk Security senior situation Soviet credibility Soviet Union stakes statements strategic strike submarines suggests threats tions treaty United University weak Weinberg West western World

About the author (2007)

Daryl G. Press is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.

Bibliographic information

TitleCalculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats
Cornell studies in security affairs, ISSN 2690-957X
AuthorDaryl G. Press
Editionillustrated, reprint
PublisherCornell University Press, 2007
ISBN0801474159, 9780801474156
Length240 pages
  
Export CitationBiBTeX EndNote RefMan