Tools for Making Acute Risk Decisions: With Chemical Process Safety ApplicationsThe complexity of today's risk decisions is well known. Beyond cost and risk there are many other factors contributing to these decisions, including type of risk (such as human injury or fatality), the economic impact on the local community, profitability, availability of capital, alternatives for reducing or eliminating the risk, costs of implementing alternatives, codes, standards, regulation, and good industry practice. This book presents a large range of decision aids for risk analysts and decision makers in industry so that vital decisions can be made in a more consistent, logical, and rigorous manner. Though primarily aimed at the process industry, this book can be used by anyone who makes similar decisions in other industries, including those in management science. |
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Contents
INTRODUCTION | 1 |
KEY CONCEPTS | 42 |
EVALUATING AND SELECTING DECISION AIDS | 65 |
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action plan analysis team Analytic Hierarchy Process application approach assess assigned attribute benefits Borda count calculated Chapter Chemcorp Chemical Process Safety chlorine chlorine loading considered constraints cost-benefit analysis criterion decision aids decision analysis decision analysis cycle decision maker decision problem decision variables decision-maker's decision-making described developed discounted distillation column dollar dynamic programming Engineering estimate Evaluation example expected utility expected value facility First-year Demand goal programming Group Decision impacts implement individuals influence diagram inputs involve Kepner-Tregoe linear programming Management Science mathematical programming maximize measure Minimize multiattribute utility analysis multiattribute utility function number of fatalities objective Operations Research optimal payoff matrix analysis phase pipeline plant manager priorities Probabilistic probability quantity revenue risk analysis risk decision scenarios Section sensitivity analysis solution solve Step Table techniques Theory uncertainty utility function Valves voters voting methods voting system weighted scoring methods