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HAS THE BUSINESS CYCLE CHANGED?
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asset prices bank's bankers behavior Bernanke boom Borio bubble business cycle central bank Chart coefficients costs credibility crises decline deflation developments difference rule discussion disinflation effect emerging-market equity estimates euro area evidence Evolving Policy Regimes example exchange rate Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve System financial imbalances financial markets Financial Stability financial system forecast four-quarter GDP growth Gertler global growth rate impact Implications of Evolving important increased inflation expectations inflation process inflation targeting inflationary instrument rules interest rates International Japan loss function low inflation macroeconomic measures monetary policy NAIRU OECD optimal outcomes output gap output volatility paper parameters percent period policy rule policymakers potential potential output price stability problem procyclical productivity recent reduce response result risk robust control ROE rule Rogoff role sector shocks standard deviation Stock and Watson structural change Taylor rule tion transmission mechanism trend uncertainty United variables variance