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15 lags binary variable Bulow and Rogoff coefficients creditor creditor countries Currency Union Daron Acemoglu dates debtor decline in bilateral defaulting country deter default deter future default DIVERT dummy variable dyads economically and statistically exports and imports fifteen fixed effects estimator Fixed GLS Fixed Free searchable abstracts GLS Fixed GLS Guadeloupe Guinea-Bissau hypothesis IMF lags IMF program inception instrumental variables intercept international trade island lag length lags of IMF landlocked Log Area Log Distance Log GDP p/c Log Real GDP NBER Working Papers negative effect Number of observations pair of countries panel data papers in hard Paris Club agreements Paris Club deals Paris Gub presence of arrears random-effects estimates real GDP Regional FTA Regressors RENEG RENEG=0 renegotiation on international renegotiations on trade repayment rescheduled sample sovereign debt renegotiation sovereign default Standard errors statistically significant trade credit trade diversion trade finance trade restrictions unity www.nber.org Free searchable