50th Anniversary of the Metaphorical Butterfly Effect since Lorenz (1972): Multistability, Multiscale Predictability, and Sensitivity in Numerical Models

Bo-Wen Shen, Roger Pielke Sr, Xubin Zeng

MDPI AG, Oct 11, 2023 - Education - 336 pages

Celebrate the 50th anniversary of the metaphorical butterfly effect, born from Edward Lorenz's 1963 work on initial condition sensitivity. In 1972, it became a metaphor for illustrating how minor changes could yield an organized system.

Lorenz Models: Chaos & Regime Changes

Explore Lorenz models' 1960-2008 evolution, chaos theory, and attractors.

Unraveling High-dimensional Instability

Challenge norms in "Butterfly Effect without Chaos?" as non-chaotic elements contribute uniquely.

Modeling Atmospheric Dynamics

Delve into atmospheric dynamics via "Storm Sensitivity Study."

Navigating Data Assimilation

Explore data assimilation's dance in chaotic and nonchaotic settings via the observability Gramian.

Chaos, Instability, Sensitivities

Explore chaos, instability, and sensitivities with Lorenz 1963 & 1969 models.

Unraveling Tropical Mysteries

Investigate tropical atmospheric instability, uncovering oscillation origins and cloud-radiation interactions.

Chaos and Order

Enter atmospheric regimes, exploring attractor coexistence and predictability.

The Art of Prediction

Peer into predictability realms, tracing the "butterfly effect's" impact on predictions.

Navigating Typhoons

Journey through typhoons, exploring rainfall and typhoon trajectory prediction.

 

Analyzing Sea Surface Temperature

Examine nonlinear analysis for classification.

Computational Fluid Dynamics

Immerse in geophysical fluid dynamics progress, simulating atmospheric phenomena.

About the author

Dr. Bo-Wen Shen holds the position of Associate Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at San Diego State University (SDSU). His academic journey includes earning a Ph.D. from North Carolina State University in 1998. Over his career spanning more than 25 years, he has accumulated expertise in various areas such as mesoscale/global modeling, high-performance computing, the application of models in numerical weather prediction, and nonlinear dynamics. He has published more than 50 refereed journal articles and more than 50 technical or conference reports. Dr. Shen joined the modeling team at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in 1999, where he contributed to the development of a unified weather and climate model. During his earlier career at GSFC, he and his colleagues successfully utilized a global mesoscale model for real-time hurricane prediction, receiving recognition in notable publications like the American Geophysical Union, Science, and other media outlets. Between 2009 and 2015, Dr. Shen assumed the role of principal investigator for NASA's CAMVis (Coupled Advanced global Modeling and concurrent Visualization systems) projects. During this time, he led initiatives to enhance the computational efficiency of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) and introduced three-level parallelism to the ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). In 2011, Dr. Shen shifted his focus to nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory, aiming to gain insights into the predictability of high-resolution global model simulations. His journey led him to join the faculty at SDSU in 2014. Since then, he has authored significant publications, including the development of a generalized Lorenz model. He and his co-authors presented a revised perspective on the dual nature of weather. This fresh perspective challenges the conventional notion that "weather is chaotic."

Over half a century, Professor Roger A. Pielke Sr. has played different roles, as a researcher, educator, and leader in atmospheric science and related fields. As one of the most accomplished atmospheric scientists in the world with an H-index of 100, he is the authority on the understanding and modeling of land surface impact (e.g., land cover and land use change, surface heterogeneities) on weather and climate, the co-developer of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the author of the most popular textbook on mesoscale meteorological modeling, and a pioneer in interdisciplinary science. He has also provided exceptional service to our field, including three Chief Editor positions that require substantial time commitments (including AMS Monthly Weather Review and Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences). The Pielke research group focuses on land-atmosphere interactions on the local, mesoscale, regional, and global scales. These interactions include biophysical, biogeochemical, and biogeographic effects. The RAMS model is a major tool used in this research. RAMS has been coupled to two different ecosystem-dynamics models (CENTURY and GEMTM) as part of these studies. Also applied is the CCM3 atmospheric global model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. His studies range from the tropics into the high Arctic regions. His group has also applied RAMS to atmospheric-ocean interactions, including Arctic sea-ice feedbacks. He and his group members have investigated these nonlinear interactions within the Earth's climate system using the coupled RAMS model, as well as simplified nonlinear mathematical models.

 

Dr. Xubin Zeng is the Agnese N. Haury Chair in Environment, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, and Director of the Climate Dynamics and Hydrometeorolgy Collaborative at the University of Arizona. He is an affiliated professor of the Applied Mathematics, Global Change, and Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis Interdisciplinary Programs. He also directs the Land-Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction (LAOI) Group. Through over 250 peer-reviewed papers, Dr. Zeng's research has focused on land-atmosphere-ocean interface processes, weather and climate modeling, hydrometeorology, remote sensing, nonlinear dynamics, and big data analytics. Dr. Zeng is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and served on its Council and Executive Committee. He received the AMS Charles Franklin Brooks Award for Outstanding Service to the Society in 2021. He is also a fellow of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). He received the Special Creativity Award from the National Science Foundation and the Outstanding Faculty Award from the University’s Asian American Faculty, Staff and Alumni Association. He received the Colorado State University Atmospheric Science Outstanding Alum Award. He was named a Distinguished Visiting Scientist at the NASA/Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in 2022. Currently Dr. Zeng co-chairs the Scientific Steering Group of Global Energy and Water Exchange (GEWEX) with 25-30 active international projects, chairs the Science Team of Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) – a new World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity, and chairs the Advisory Committee on Earth & Biological Sciences (with 650 people and $200M/year budget) at DOE PNNL.

Bibliographic information

• Title: 50th Anniversary of the Metaphorical Butterfly Effect since Lorenz (1972): Multistability, Multiscale Predictability, and Sensitivity in Numerical Models
• Editors: Bo-Wen Shen, Roger Pielke Sr, Xubin Zeng
• Publisher: MDPI AG, 2023
• ISBN: 3036589104, 9783036589107
• Length: 336 pages
• Subjects: Education / Teaching / Subjects / Mathematics