Psychology of Intelligence AnalysisWith intelligence now getting a front-row seat in governments around the world, this book is especially timely. Intelligence rains in, but without an understanding of the nature of the intelligence, it accumulates in puddles of obscurity. The problems therefore seem to be how to obtain it, how to understand it, and how to sell it to one's bosses. This book deals with how to understand it. Three fundamental points are at the heart of this presentation about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face: The mind is poorly "wired" to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations). Even increased awareness of cognitive and other "unmotivated" biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an already-held judgement more vividly than one sees "disconfirming" information, does little by itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty. Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Key examples of such intellectual devices include techniques for structuring information, challenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations. This book was first issued by the CIA. |
Contents
Improving Intelligence Analysis at CIA Dick | 1 |
Chapter 2 | 21 |
Chapter 3 | 31 |
Copyright | |
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ability accuracy accurate actually alternative answer apply asked assumptions attribute basis behavior believe bias biases causes Chapter circumstances cognitive Community comparable complex concerning conclusions consider consistent creative deception decision determine developed difficult discussed effect estimates evaluation evidence example existing expect experience explanations fact factors failure Figure foreign given greater happen human hypotheses ideas identify imagine impact important improve indicate influence intelligence analysts interpretation involved issues judge judgments knowledge leads less limitations logic look managers matrix memory mental mind nature observer occur outcome past perceive perception performance possible present probability problem procedures question reasoning relationship relevant shows similar situation Step strategy subjects tend test subjects theory thinking thought understanding variables