Macroeconomic Forecasting: Debunking a Few Old Wives' Tales |
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actual Add-factor in equation Altissimo assume available information Banca d'Italia Bank of England Bank of Italy behavioural relationships capital accumulation changes component confidence intervals constant term D₁ deemed discrepancy durable consumption economic mechanisms effects endogenous variable equilibrium growth path equilibrium level estimated coefficients exogenous fact factors fiscal following periods forecast figures forecast results forecaster's forecasting errors forecasting model forecasting process forecasts produced formulated future given forecast households identify implied inertial inflation information into account instance Interpretation of static investment function latter lifecycle income long-run Lucas Critique macroeconomic forecasting numerical value observed in period OECD outcome Outlier paper Phillips curve plausible policy-making possible precautionary saving pricing behaviour private sector value probability density function quarterly model reduced-form model relevant sector value added Simulation results static simulation errors static simulation residual steady-state growth path stem story structural break structural model value added deflator wage dynamics y₁