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actual Add-factor in equation aggregate Altissimo analysis assume available information Bank of Italy behavioural relationships capital accumulation changes component confidence intervals constant term deemed discrepancy durable consumption economic mechanisms effects endogenous variable equilibrium growth path equilibrium level estimated coefficients exogenous explicit fact factors fiscal following periods forecast figures forecast results forecaster's forecasting errors forecasting model forecasting process forecasts produced formulated future g g g given forecast households identify implied inertial information into account instance Interpretation of static investment function latter lifecycle income long-run Lucas Critique macroeconomic forecasting mark-up mark-up mark-up Monetary Policy numerical value observed in period OECD Outlier paper Phillips curve plausible policy-making possible precautionary saving pricing behaviour private sector value probability density function quarterly model reduced-form model relevant sector value added simulation result static simulation errors static simulation residual steady-state growth path stem story structural break structural model value added deflator wage dynamics