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CAUSS completely fixed exchange constant corresponding curve decreasing derivative devaluation risk differential equation differential's instantaneous standard domestic bonds Dumas ebar endogenous risk premium European Monetary System exchange rate band exchange rate equation exchange rate function exchange rate regime expected change Figure 6a fixed exchange rate float exchange rate Flood and Garber foreign bonds foreign exchange market free float exchange free float rate Froot and Obstfeld fundamental band implies instantaneous standard deviation interest rate differential interest rate differential's interest rate variability Ito's lemma Krugman large band lower and upper Monetary money demand money supply narrow target zone negative nominal interest rate number of devaluations Obstfeld 1989a portfolio share PU Figure rate differential's instantaneous real exchange rate reasonable parameter regulated Brownian motion semi-elasticity of money small bands smooth pasting conditions specify stochastic process target zone exchange target zone model upper bounds variance velocity width zero fundamental drift zone exchange rate