Applied Economic ForecastingThe subjects covered include econometric macromodels, preliminary estimates of recent changes input-outputs, forecast applications of information concepts and various survey techniques dealing ... |
Contents
INTRODUCTION | 1 |
Measuring the Accuracy of Point Predictions | 15 |
Diagram | 35 |
Copyright | |
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Common terms and phrases
average average information backcast cent chapter column conditional forecasts conditional probabilities consider consumption correct forecasts corresponding cumulation rule decrease dependent variable difference distribution eitt endogenous variables equation estimates example exogenous expected information explanatory variables Export price level extrapolation final demand forecast errors fractions frequencies given guilders Hence implies important increase predictions indifference interval industry information content information inaccuracy information theory input coefficients input-output table intermediate demand inventories investment linear log-change macroeconomic mean square error measurement error median natural logarithm negative no-change nonwage income observational errors obtain orders received output P₁ participants percentage period plan revision prediction errors prediction-realization diagram primary input probability procedure quartile ratio realized changes regression relative change response functions RMS error sales price Section sector input stage survey Tabel term turning point errors underestimation of changes variance wage rate zero