The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate PredictionClimate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as 'prophecies of doom' and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate 'doomism', while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change. |
Contents
| 1 | |
The Dawn of Computing | 11 |
The Butterfly and the Tornado | 27 |
Goldilocks and the Three Planets | 47 |
Smagorinskys Laboratory | 63 |
Butterflies in the Greenhouse | 77 |
Black Swan at the Polar Dawn | 87 |
From Gown to Town | 99 |
14 Lost in Translation | 212 |
15 Taking Climate Models Seriously Not Literally | 233 |
To Exascale and Beyond | 253 |
The Climate Imitation Game | 268 |
Reducing the Fever | 280 |
Hedging Our Climate Bets | 287 |
20 Moonwalking into the Future | 307 |
Epilogue | 314 |
Other editions - View all
The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction R. Saravanan Limited preview - 2021 |
The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction R. Saravanan No preview available - 2021 |
Common terms and phrases
accurate amount approach assessment associated atmosphere average become behavior better calculations called carbon dioxide carry cause Chapter climate change climate models climate prediction climate sensitivity clouds complex concentration considered continue cooling cost cycle Demon discussed Earth effect emergent emissions energy equations error estimates et al example experiments extreme Figure forecast future global warming greenhouse grid happen heat human impacts important improve increase initial conditions IPCC known lead less limit Manabe mathematical means measurements mitigation natural Neumann observed occurred ocean ozone past percent performance physical possible Princeton probability problem processes projections properties radiation range reasoning reduce referred regional represent result risk scenarios scientific scientists simple simulations structural surface temperature term theory tuning uncertainty University unknowns values weather