The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate PredictionClimate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as 'prophecies of doom' and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate 'doomism', while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change. |
Contents
| 1 | |
The Dawn of Computing | 11 |
The Butterfly and the Tornado | 27 |
Goldilocks and the Three Planets | 47 |
Smagorinskys Laboratory | 63 |
Butterflies in the Greenhouse | 77 |
Black Swan at the Polar Dawn | 87 |
From Gown to Town | 99 |
14 Lost in Translation | 212 |
15 Taking Climate Models Seriously Not Literally | 233 |
To Exascale and Beyond | 253 |
The Climate Imitation Game | 268 |
Reducing the Fever | 280 |
Hedging Our Climate Bets | 287 |
20 Moonwalking into the Future | 307 |
Epilogue | 314 |
Other editions - View all
The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction R. Saravanan Limited preview - 2021 |
The Climate Demon: Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction R. Saravanan No preview available - 2021 |
Common terms and phrases
accurate aerosols atmosphere average behavior boundary conditions Butterfly Effect calculations carbon cycle carbon dioxide carbon dioxide concentrations carbon emissions CFCs chips Clim climate change climate crisis Climate Demon climate models climate prediction climate science climate scientists climate sensitivity climate system clouds computer models constraints contrarians cooling Earth El Niņo emission scenarios energy ENIAC ensemble equations error bar Figure future geoengineering GFDL global temperature global warming global-average greenhouse effect greenhouse gas grid box heat human hurricane impacts increase inductive initial conditions IPCC IPCC assessment Jule Charney Kasahara known unknowns Knutti long-term climate Lorenz Manabe mathematical Mauchly measurements mitigation Neumann Niņo observed ocean ozone hole parameterizations parameters percent physical problem processes rainfall risk satellite scientific Section simplified models simulations Smagorinsky solar stratosphere supercomputer surface tipping points trends tuning uncertainty University water vapor weather and climate Weather Demon weather forecasts weather model weather prediction