Planning for long-term security in Central Europe: implications of the new strategic environment
Paul K. Davis, Robert Dale Howe, United States. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Rand Corporation, Rand Strategy Assessment Center
Rand, 1990 - Political Science - 50 pages
The recent changes in Europe have transformed the strategic landscape and altered what can be accomplished with respect to security. This report proposes a framework of new NATO objectives and a strategy for accomplishing them. The approach recognizes the desirability of achieving long-term stability--a state characterized by robust security, predictability, the absence of crises and dangerous international tensions, a "reasonable" defense burden that is either constant or shrinking, and public satisfaction with the situation. To achieve this objective, the authors recommend thinking in terms of five subordinate objectives: (1) deter, without provocation, a Soviet invasion of Western Europe; (2) deter, without provocation, Soviet reentry into Eastern Europe; (3) maintain strategic equivalence; (4) deter rearmament; and (5) reduce sources of conflict and tension.
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THE SEARCH FOR LONGTERM
MAJOR ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION
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Achieve long-term stability air defenses air forces aircraft analysis armed neutrality Blue Fig buffer zone capabilities Central Europe concem conﬂict Conventional core strategy CSBMs Czechoslovakia Davis deep cuts deep-cuts regime deep-strike defender’s defense burden deﬁning Deterring Aggression deterring rearmament doctrine East-West Security Eastem Europe environment environment-shaping strategy example fense ﬁre ﬁrst ﬁve ﬂexibility FOFA force levels force structure former GDR forthcoming Genscher Plan German German Democratic Republic hedging strategy Huber important indirect-ﬁre systems infantry intemational interdiction invasion issues Kokoshin Konovalov Kugler long-term security low force Maintain nuclear measures military stability Mobile Force Multan munitions nations NATO’s military naval arms control negotiations nonoffensive nuclear forces nuclear weapons objectives Operation Barbarossa Poland political post-CFE provocation RAND Corporation region signiﬁcant sources of tension Soviet forces Soviet reentry Soviet Union stability diagram strategic barriers strategic buffer strategic equivalence strategic landscape surprise attack tactical tion unilateral Urals region waming Watman weapon systems