Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios
"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager's toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today's leading practitioners in the field." -Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario-based planning as comprehensively as this one." -David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning-the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." -David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." -Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind-stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." -George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
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Integrating Strategy and Scenarios
An Illustrative Example
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alternative futures approach assess business environment business idea California wine causal loop diagrams challenge competitive competitor scenarios consumer corporate create critical cross-impact analysis current strategy customers decision makers dimensions driving forces economic effective emerging example executives Exhibit explore factors firm firm's flat tax focus forecast global goals growth identify implications important industry scenarios insights investment issues laser management team marketplace ment mental models narios opportunities OPtech options organization organization's outcomes participants personal computer Pierre Wack plausible plot possible potential Protectionism questions range relationships relevant rivals Royal Dutch/Shell scenar scenario analysis scenario development scenario learning scenario planning scenario process scenario team set of scenarios simulation SoftFollower SoftLeader specific Statoil step structure substitute products success systems thinking thinking tion trends ture uncertainty understanding variables Vehicle Wild cards workshop