Probability of hurricane/tropical storm conditions: a user's guide for local decision makers
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1983 - Nature - 25 pages
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100 Example Hurricanes 24 hours 2O percent 48-Hour Forecast Position 72 hours actions which require Actual 48-Hour Locations actual storm locations anticipated landfall approximately 65 miles bilities Cause Hurricane Conditions CEDAR KEY center of Hurricane coast computer models decision makers Expected Actual 48-Hour experience hurricane conditions forecast error forecast preparation forecast uncertainty Frederic will pass Galveston given storm gives the probability Gulf of Mexico hours before anticipated hours before landfall Hurricane Frederic hurricane probabilities listed location Locations of 100 MARCO ISLAND mariner storm warnings miles of Gulfport National Hurricane Center National Weather Service Official Forecast Track one-half percent segments Orleans PANAMA CITY pass within approximately Past Track PENSACOLA percent 14 percent PM CDT PM WED PORT O'CONNOR preparation was initiated proba probability thresholds probability through 72 Public Advisories September 11 storm tides storm's movement Table THRU 7 PM THRU THRU THRU tropical meteorologists Tuesday Windward Islands