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a+T,t+T age group age-specific fertility rates auxiliary regressions average completed fertility baby boom birth decision birth rates child services childbearing CM CM CM cohort aged 20 completed fer completed fertility expectations component cost of children Countercyclical couples current and completed current births current fertility rates current male income current numbers current period decision period dynamic effect of current elasticity of current ex post expected completed fertility female employment ratio female wage changes female wage rates female wage Wf fertility rate TFR future expectations future male income income effect intertemporal substitution life-cycle lifetime male income Ym measure of expected normalized fertility rates number of children opportunity cost path period fertility rates period t-1 pleted fertility predict future predicted female wage predicted wages prediction equations Rand Corporation rise sample shadow price static model tility total fertility rate values wages and income weighted wife wife's wage women aged