Applied Bayesian and Classical Inference: The Case of The Federalist PapersThe new version has two additions. First, at the suggestion of Stephen Stigler I we have replaced the Table of Contents by what he calls an Analytic Table of Contents. Following the title of each section or subsection is a description of the content of the section. This material helps the reader in several ways, for example: by giving a synopsis of the book, by explaining where the various data tables are and what they deal with, by telling what theory is described where. We did several distinct full studies for the Federalist papers as well as many minor side studies. Some or all may offer information both to the applied and the theoretical reader. We therefore try to give in this Contents more than the few cryptic words in a section heading to ~peed readers in finding what they want. Seconq, we have prepared an extra chapter dealing with authorship work published from. about 1969 to 1983. Although a chapter cannot compre hensively Gover a field where many books now appear, it can mention most ofthe book-length works and the main thread of authorship' studies published in English. We founq biblical authorship studies so extensive and com plicated that we thought it worthwhile to indicate some papers that would bring out the controversies that are taking place. We hope we have given the flavor of developments over the 15 years mentioned. We have also corrected a few typographical errors. |
Contents
A Robust HandCalculated Bayesian Analysis | 6 |
The Main Study | 15 |
3A Independence of words from one block of text to another | 23 |
We give an overview abstracted from technical detail of the ideas | 46 |
1C Initial odds | 56 |
2B The interpretation of the prior distributions | 63 |
49 | 71 |
Theoretical Basis of the Main Study | 92 |
8C Total log odds for the final 30 words | 172 |
9A Probability predictions | 181 |
numerical results | 185 |
10B Theory | 198 |
where j Hamilton or Madison y is the value for the disputed paper | 213 |
ThreeCategory Analysis | 229 |
Other Studies | 243 |
222 | 258 |
1D Estimation | 97 |
2D The posterior distribution | 103 |
Four initial assumptions model the probabilistic relations among | 112 |
3G Summary | 117 |
second analysis | 128 |
6D Notes on asymptotic methods | 152 |
7D Study of 15 word pairs | 159 |
8B The study of word rates | 165 |
Summary of Results and Conclusions | 263 |
5B Kesari | 273 |
Appendix | 283 |
| 285 | |
| 291 | |
| 293 | |
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Applied Bayesian and Classical Inference: The Case of The Federalist Papers F. Mosteller,D. L. Wallace No preview available - 2011 |
Common terms and phrases
30 words 31 of underlying adjustment analysis assumptions Bayes Bayesian beta distribution calibrating set cent choice computation cont correlation counts discrimination disputed papers effect evaluation evidence Federalist papers final odds frequency function words given Hamilton and Madison Hamilton Madison Hamilton markers Hamilton papers high-frequency words independent initial odds known authorship likelihood ratio logarithm low-frequency words Madison markers Madison papers main study marker words mean rates method modal approximation mode negative binomial distribution non-Poissonness normally distributed number of papers occurrences odds factor paper length Paper number papers of known parameters Poisson distribution Poisson model posterior density posterior distribution predictions prior density prior distribution probability problem random variable sample screening set Section sets of underlying standard deviations statistical theorem total log odds underlying constants unknown paper values variance variation word groups word rates zero β₁ δι