Change in Taiwan and Potential Adversity in the StraitFor more than 40 years, the China-Taiwan conflict has effectively institutionalized the outcome of China's 1945-49 civil war. Since 1949, each side of the Taiwan Strait has been ruled by one of the two main parties to that conflict--the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang--and until the mid-1980s the claims of each to represent China's legitimate national government limited flexibility on both sides and rendered real movement in the relationship virtually impossible. Since the mid-1980s, however, Kuomintang authorities have loosened some political restrictions in Taiwan. This shift has produced rapid economic and political developments on the island, the thrust of which is extremely disturbing to China's leadership and which has fundamentally altered the parameters of the Strait conflict. The author foresees a degree of stability in the short to medium term but identifies three potentially destabilizing trends that may pull Taiwan away from any substantive commitment to reunification: the political and social changes favoring a "distinct" Taiwan identity; "Taiwanization" of the ruling Kuomintang; and increasing confidence in Taiwan's ability to leverage wealth, investment, and trade for ambitious foreign policy goals. |
Contents
INTRODUCTION | 1 |
Official Claims and Policy Flexibility | 11 |
Mainland Investments and Business Influence | 27 |
Copyright | |
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1992 Legislative Yuan arena Beijing Beijing's bold policy shifts candidates checks China policy Chinese threat coalition conclusions reflect consensus in favor constituency constraints cross-Strait relationship debate Democratic Progressive Party destabilizing deterrence domestic DPP government DPP's economic dependence elite emerging consensus ethnically Taiwanese evolve Executive Yuan flexible foreign and security increasingly independence advocates independence sentiment industrial restructuring institutionalized institutions interests island jure independence Kaohsiung city KMT's Kuomintang leadership Lee Teng-hui Lee's leverage wealth Lianhebao Lien Chan Lin Yang-kang Mainland Affairs Council mainland China mainland investments mainland policy major parties military offshore investment opposition Original Equipment Manufacturer pace party's policy process political-military polls PORF potential public opinion push regional Republic of China role ruling KMT scenario second-generation mainlander significant stabilizing trends stakes status issue substantive summary conclusions Taipei Taiwan's foreign Taiwan's leaders Taiwan's mainland Taiwan's political Taiwan's status term trade dependence victory votes wild card