Social Science Microsimulation

Front Cover
Klaus G. Troitzsch
Springer Science & Business Media, Sep 17, 1996 - Business & Economics - 471 pages
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This book gives an overview of the state of the art in five different approaches to social science simulation on the individual level. The volume contains microanalytical simulation models designed for policy implementation and evaluation, multilevel simulation methods designed for detecting emergent phenomena, dynamical game theory applications, the use of cellular automata to explain the emergence of structure in social systems, and multi-agent models using the experience from distributed artificial intelligence applied to special phenomena. The book collects the results of an international conference which brought together social scientists and computer scientists both engaged in a wide range of simulation approaches for the first time.
 

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Contents

A Comparison of a 4GL and an Objectoriented Approach in Micro Macro Simulation
3
12 Darmstadt Micro Macro Simulator
4
13 Fourth Generation Language System
11
14 Application Development Tools
15
15 Objectoriented System
24
16 Concluding Remarks
30
MICSIM Concept Developments and Applications of a PC Microsimulation Model for Research and Teaching
33
22 Microsimulation General Characteristics and Requirements
34
From Life Event Analysis to Life Course Analysis
237
122 From Transition Rate Models to Evolutionary Life History Analysis
239
Basic Concepts and a Simple Model
249
124 Testing the New Models Against Real Data
260
Simulating Cooperation and Competition Present State and Future Objectives
264
132 Collective Stability in Heterogeneous Populations
267
133 Changing the strategic objective
269
134 Introducing Space
271

23 MICSIM Concept and Substantive Modules
40
24 MICSIM Realisations and Developments
50
25 MICSIM Applications
59
26 Concluding Remarks
62
Exploring and Testing Theories On the Role of Parameter Optimization in Social Science Computer Simulation
66
32 On the Role of Parameter Optimization in Simulation Assisted Theory Building
68
Exploring and Testing Richardsons Theory of Arms Races
70
34 Software Requirements for Parameter Optimization
74
35 Summary and Outlook
75
Why Are We Simulating Anyway? Some Answers from Economics
78
42 Different But Equal Representations of Theory
82
43 Difficulties with Mathematical Representation
87
44 The Possibilities of Simulation
93
45 But Is It Science?
96
46 Conclusion
102
Social Science Multilevel Simulation
105
Multilevel Simulation
107
52 Modeling Approaches
108
53 Opinion Formation in a Homogeneous Population
112
54 Attitude Formation in a Homogeneous Population
113
55 Gender Desegregation
115
56 Interactions in Small Groups
117
57 Conclusion
120
Social Science Multilevel Simulation with MIMOSE
123
62 Experimentation with Models
131
63 Conclusions
136
Multilevel Modelling with MIMOSE Experience from a Social Science Application
138
72 The Formal Approach to Multilevel Modeling
139
73 The Multilevel Model of Military Intervention in Politics
140
Military Intervention in Thailand
144
76 Sensitivity Analysis
148
77 Research Questions
153
A Microsimulation Tool for Social Force Models
155
82 The simulation program
164
83 Summary and Outlook
168
Evolution in Humans of Macrolevel Social Stratification and Language
171
92 Modeling Social Stratification
172
93 Modeling Human Language
174
94 Conclusion
176
Survival Analysis Master Equation Efficient Simulation of PathRelated Quantities and Hidden State Concept of Transitions
179
102 Survival Analysis
180
103 The Master Equation Technique
184
104 Simulation of PathRelated Quantities
188
105 Occurence Probabilities and Occurence Times of Paths
190
106 Effective Cumulative LifeTime Distribution and Hidden State Concept
194
107 Summary and Outlook
205
Game Theory and Cellular Automata
209
Game Theory Decision Making in Conflicts and Computer Simulations a GoodLooking Triad
211
112 Game Theory
212
113 Decision Making under Uncertainty and Conflict
214
114 Social Dilemmas
215
115 A Model of Decision Making in Social Dilemmas
216
116 The Simulation Environment
217
117 Basic Findings of the Simulations
219
118 Small Groups versus Large Groups
221
119 Cooperation in Large Groups
223
1110 Theoretical Model
227
1111 Summary and Conclusions
233
135 Towards the simulation of social dilemmas
272
136 Towards the simulation of intergroup conflict
274
137 Concluding remarks
276
Understanding Social Dynamics The Cellular Automata Approach
282
142 CA and social dynamics
283
143 A short history of CA based modeling in the social sciences
287
Evolution of Support Networks
291
145 Why CA based modeling and simulations?
302
Spatial Evolution of Automata in the Prisoners Dilemma
307
152 The Model
315
153 Results with Fixed Learning Rules
327
154 Conclusions
353
155 Proof of Proposition 151
355
Simulating the Social Context of Human Choice
359
162 Social impact theory
360
163 Dynamic social impact
361
164 Theory and data
364
165 Demonstrating dynamic social impact
365
Predicting the Emergence of Organization
369
Tailored to the task
370
168 Discussion
374
169 Conclusion
375
Distributed Artificial Intelligence
379
Simulating Societies using Distributed Artificial Intelligence
381
173 Distributed AI
383
175 Sets of Intelligent Agents
386
177 Illustrative Examples
387
178 Prospects and Problems
391
Simulating MultiAgent Interdependencies A TwoWay Approach to the MicroMacro Link
394
182 The Dependence Theory
399
183 The DEPNET Simulator
405
184 The Potentialities of DEPNET
406
185 Conclusive Remarks
412
Artificial Intelligence Modelling Data Driven and Theory Driven Approaches
416
192 AI based modelling
417
193 Theory driven AImodelling
420
194 Data driven AImodelling
422
discovery of theoretical explanations for group processes
424
196 Conclusion
429
ObjectOriented and AgentOriented Simulation Implications for Social Science Application
432
201 Introduction
433
Deliberative Situated Reactive Rational
434
203 The ObjectOriented Simulation System DEVS
435
204 DEVS and AgentOriented Techniques
437
205 A Step to AgentOriented Simulation AgedDEVS
438
206 Hiring and Firing
439
207 AgedDEVS and AgentOriented Simulation
444
208 Conclusions
445
Simulation as a Research Strategy
448
212 A methodology for simulation research
450
213 Some conjectures arising from the simulations
452
214 Computing techniques and tools for simulation
453
Appendix
455
Environments and Languages to Support Social Simulation
457
Computer Simulation and Social Sciences On the Future of a Difficult Relation
459
Author Index
461
Subject Index
469
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