## Decisions under uncertainty, with research applications |

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### Contents

The Forest Fire Prob | 10 |

SOME CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY 14 Sets | 26 |

DECISIONS INVOLVING EXPECTED VALUES UTILITY | 32 |

Copyright | |

10 other sections not shown

### Common terms and phrases

acre action ax agriculture alternative applications assume average utility Bayes Bayesian strategy calculated Chapter choice column computed conditional probabilities convex set cost criteria crop decision maker decision problem decision theory decision-making problem derived dollar drill empirical equation estimates example expected gain expected income expected monetary value expected value experiment farm farmers Figure formula framework gains table given grower Hurwicz illustrate indifference curve individual linear losses marginal utility maximizing expected utility maximum minimax minimax regret monetary outcomes nature no-data problem normal observed obtain occur optimal P(Ai payoff table percent perfect predictor possible posterior distribution posterior probabilities predicted preferred action price forecast prior distribution prior probabilities prior probability distribution prob probability distribution procedure pure strategies rancher range conditions reference contract risk seismic selected shown in Table specific standard deviation subjective probability subset Suppose tion uncertainty utility function utility values variance weather