Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System |
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attacks on pegged behavior of macroeconomic Bretton Woods System budget deficit capital controls central banks countries crises and non-crises crisis Danish krone denotes probability devaluations domestic credit equality of distribution ERM subsample European Monetary System events and non-events exchange rate regimes expansionary direction financial variables first-generation models fiscal policies Flood and Garber foreign exchange markets France histograms hypothesis of equality index of speculative inflation differential interest differential international reserves intervention Italian lira K-S K-W Fiscal K-S K-W K-S K-W Fiscal Ratio K-W K-S K-W Krugman Kruskal-Wallis test macroeconomic and financial monetary and fiscal money demand multiple equilibria non-ERM Outliers Excluded non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test null hypothesis null of equal Obstfeld output pegged exchange rates percentage change period leading predictions probability of rejection purchasing power parity real exchange rate Real Rate reject the null rejection of null Reserve Growth second-generation models shift six-month exclusion window speculative attacks speculative pressure Wyplosz