Chance: The Life of Games & the Game of LifeOur lives are immersed in a sea of chance. Everyone’s existence is a meeting point of a multitude of accidents. The origin of the word ‘chance’ is usually traced back to the vulgar Latin word ‘cadentia’, meaning a befalling by fortuitous circumstances, with no knowable or determinable causes. The Roman philosopher Cicero clearly expressed the idea of ‘chance’ in his work De Divinatione: For we do not apply the words ‘chance’, ‘luck’, ‘accident’ or ‘casualty’ except toanevent which hassooccurredorhappened that it either might not have occurred at all, or might have occurred in any other way. 2.VI.15. For if a thing that is going to happen, may happen in one way or another, indi?erently, chance is predominant; but things that happen by chance cannot be certain. 2.IX.24. Ina certain sensechance isthespiceoflife. Iftherewerenophenomena with unforeseeable outcomes, phenomena with an element of chance, all temporal cause–e?ect sequences would be completely deterministic. |
Contents
| 1 | |
Amazing Conditions | 25 |
Expecting to Win | 45 |
The Wonderful Curve 67 | 66 |
Probable Inferences | 93 |
Fortune and Ruin | 107 |
The Nature of Chance 125 | 124 |
Noisy Irregularities | 153 |
Chance and Order 175 | 174 |
Living with Chance | 199 |
Some Mathematical Notes | 215 |
| 221 | |
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amount apply approximately assume average ball bits called causes certain certainty chance chaotic Chap classifier coin complexity computed consider contains correlation corresponding curve denote depends determine deviation distribution entropy equal error estimate euros evolution example expectation experiment face fact fair Figure formula frequency function gain given hand happens heads increase initial instance interest interval iterator known large numbers law of large learning length less letters look mathematical matter mean measure nature normal Note observations obtain occur periodic phenomena player population position possible present prize probability problem produced quantum quantum mechanics questions random relation represents respective result rounds rule sequence shown in Fig shows situation standard Suppose symbols tails theory throws tossing true turns variables winning zero
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Page 3 - According to this principle, a division into "equally possible" cases is conceivable in any kind of observations, and the probability of an event is the ratio between the number of cases favorable to the event and the total number of possible cases. The weakness in this concept is apparent.