A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland
This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important.
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Adaptation African farms AOGCM arenosols billion Burkina Faso Cameroon CCSR climate scenario chromic luvisols climate change scenarios climate models climate sensitivity climate variables coefficients in Table crop Dinar district dryland and irrigated dryland farms effect Egypt elasticity Environmental Economics estimated farm net revenue farmers ferralsols Figure frFHS geCU Ghana global warming hectare from CCSR hill-shaped hilly to steep household labor ilqHS impact of climate irrigated cropland irrigated farms irrigated land Kenya Kurukulasuriya loMH luvisols in moderate Mendelsohn Niger Nordhaus prec sq precipitation response function rainfall regional dummies regions of Africa revenue per hectare Ricardian method Ricardian model sample scenario in 2020 scenarios predict Senegal Soil South Africa southern Africa steep areas study examined survey temp sq temperature and precipitation texture in undulating undulating areas uniform climate scenarios University of Pretoria vcFU vertisols vulnerable warming on agriculture World Bank yermosols ykCMUH Zambia Zimbabwe