The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation

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John Wiley & Sons, Oct 12, 2010 - Business & Economics - 544 pages
2 Reviews
Top economist Gary Shilling shows you how to prosper in the slow-growing and deflationary times that lie ahead

While many investors fear a rapid rise in inflation, author Gary Shilling, an award-winning economic forecaster, argues that the global economy is going through a long period of de-leveraging and weak growth, which makes deflation far more likely and a far greater threat to investors than inflation. Shilling explains in clear language and compelling logic why the world economy will struggle for several more years and what investors can do to protect and grow their wealth in the difficult times ahead. The investment strategies that worked for last 25 years will not work in the next 10 years. Shilling advises readers to avoid broad exposure to stocks, real estate, and commodities and to focus on high-quality bonds, high-dividend stocks, and consumer staple and food stocks.

  • Written by one of today's best forecasters of economic trends-twice voted by Institutional Investor as Wall Street's top economist
  • Clearly explains what to invest in, what to avoid, and how to cope with a deflationary, slow-growth economy
  • Demonstrates how Shilling has been consistently right about major economic trends since he began forecasting in the early 1980s

Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this timely guide lays out a convincing case for why investors need to be prepared for a long period of weak growth and deflation-not inflation-and what you can do to prosper in the difficult times ahead.


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I've been a fan of A. Gary Shilling's for some time. I share many of his views of the way the economic world works. I particularly appreciate the way he's careful with his choice of words. For example ... Read full review

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I thought this book was very good. A friend recommended it to me, and he was insightful enough to take his money out of the market before the 2008 crash. When I read it, I knew this guy knew what he was talking about because he actually made money doing what he talks about, not by selling a book or collecting fees on peoples' investments. Anyway, I like that he was not your typical attention-getter doom and gloom guy, and he is not your typical buy and hold / stocks/bonds/cash mix either. He has good insight on new trends that make sense when you consider debt, deficits, demographics, psychology, and most importantly, arithmetic. I have changed my investments in my 403B and Roth IRA by investing in health care, biotechnology, consumer staples, high yield bond funds as well as KMP and NLY. I sleep much better at night now that I have an investment plan based on facts, not a history that may not be relevant in today's world. This is an important read for all ages, and I highly encourage you to do so! 


The Housing Bubble Great Call 6 53
Making Great Calls
The Financial Bubble Great Call 7
The Results of Denial
Slow Growth Ahead
No Help from Anywhere
Chronic Worldwide Deflation
Monetary and Fiscal Excesses
The Outlook for Stocks
Twelve Investments to Sell or Avoid
Ten Investments to Buy
About the Author

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About the author (2010)

A. Gary Shilling is President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor. He has been a columnist for Forbes magazine since 1983, frequently appears on business news programs, and is quoted regularly in the print media. Shilling has been warning about the long-term threat of deflation for several years and has even created a board game, aptly titled The Deflation Game. He received his bachelor's degree from Amherst College and earned his master's degree and PhD in economics at Stanford University. Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Shilling was senior vice president and chief economist of White, Weld & Co., Inc. Earlier, he set up the Economics Department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated and served as the firm's first chief economist.

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