Active Enlisted Supply: Prospects and Policy Options
Rand Corporation, 1984 - Military service, Voluntary - 38 pages
In this paper we show how the forces shaping enlisted supply in the 1980s will affect the services' abilities to attract and retain the numbers and types of individuals they want. We give special attention to the Army because its past recruiting problems have sparked greatest concern. For both DoD (all services together) and the Army, we present forecasts of high-quality male enlistments, of first- and second-term retention rates, and of the enlisted force structure. We also examine some alternative policy options for dealing with problems that our forecasts might suggest. We do not analyze whether the forecast force structure is the most cost-effective, nor do we treat the effects of changes in the military retirement system on accessions and retention. The retirement system is currently under study by the Fifth Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation.
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accession demand accession quality accession requirements AFQT all-volunteer force Army College Fund Army's assume assumptions ASVAB bonus civilian pay civilian wage Congressional Budget Office costs decade EATP Educational Assistance Program educational benefits end strength enlisted personnel enlistment and retention enlistment incentives enlistment levels enlistment supply estimates experience mix first-term retention force strength force structure forecasting forecasting model high pay scenario high quality high school graduates high-quality enlistments high-quality male enlistments higher increase individuals kickers low pay scenario male high school military pay military/civilian pay ratio nonprior service accession number of recruiters PATC index pay series percent in 1983 percentage points personnel force structure policy options predict projected decline Rand Corporation reduce reenlistment bonuses relative pay retention behavior second reenlistment point second-term retention rates Secretary of Defense senior force shortages skill specialties term of service trend two-year option unemployment rate VEAP volunteer youth cohort youth population