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2000 United Kingdom aggregate price Amato and Laubach central bank Claudio Borio conduct of monetary credit spreads cumulative process deﬁned deﬁnition economy without nominal equilibrium models equilibrium real interest ex post real expectations Federal Reserve Bank ﬁnance ﬁnancial imperfections ﬁnancial market ﬁrst ﬂuctuations gap and inﬂation Giannoni inﬂation determination inﬂation target inﬂuence interest rate gaps interest rate rules investment Keynesian models Kydland long-run natural rate macroeconomic mimeo Monetary policy rules natural rate theories natural rate-based theory nominal rigidities Optimal monetary policy output and inﬂation output gap policy makers policy rate post real interest post real rate price inﬂation price level price stability productivity of capital quantity theory rate of interest real business cycle real interest rate real rate gaps risk premia role in monetary short-term real interest signiﬁcant speciﬁc stabilisation sticky prices supply shocks Taylor rule theory of inﬂation transmission mechanism TVP estimate V\ﬁcksell's variables Viﬁcksell Wicksell Woodford