Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty |
Contents
Your Basic Problem | 1 |
Analysis of Your Basic Problem | 7 |
Chapter 3 | 39 |
Copyright | |
50 other sections not shown
Common terms and phrases
a₁ acceptance set analyze assume basic problem Bayesian behavior branches C₁ c₂ chance forks chapter choice choose CME's conditional probability consider cost decide decision analysis decision maker decision problem decision-flow diagram depend discuss draw e₁ EMV'er example expected utility expected value experimentation and action exponential utility Figure form of analysis gamble give given indifference curves individuals interval joint utility evaluation judgmental probability labeled lectures likelihood function Likelihood Principle mathematical maximize monetary obtain optimal strategy option outcome pair Pareto-optimal partition path probabilities payoffs perfect information possible posterior posterior probability prefer Principle prob probability assessments probability assignments probability distribution procedure red ball risk sharing sample shown in Fig situation statistical strategy for experimentation Substitution Suppose Table theory tion toss tree true proportion type 01 ū₁ uncertain quantities uncertainty utility curve utility function utility value zero