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Aaron administration agency Allen Schick alternative analysis assistance aviation bankruptcy benefits billion Brookings Institution Brookings Papers budget changes China China policy cities Committee comparative advantage concludes Congress costs countries defense dollar earnings econometric Economic Activity economists effective employment eral expenditures finance fiscal Foreign Policy Studies groups growth housing important incentives income tax increase industry inflation interest investment issues Japan Japanese labor Latin American major Massachusetts Avenue ment monetary negative income tax nomic nuclear officials Okinawa Okun payroll tax peacekeeping percent policymakers political poor President presidential problems proposed Published reform regulation relations sector senior fellow social security spending staff subsidy suggests Taiwan tion tive trade transport U.S. forces unions United University urban vote wage Washington WASHINGTON D.C. welfare William Poole