Do campaigns matter?
A thorough examination of the impact of campaign politics on presidential elections in the United States is presented in this book. Using actual election results and empirical evidence, the author also incorporates data on additional factors such as media coverage, the impact of nominating conventions on public opinion, presidential debates, and other events such as staff shake-ups, endorsements and scandals. In so doing, Holbrook develops a model for testing campaigns and proves how campaigns play a key role in shaping public opinion and, ultimately, influencing outcomes.
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Campaigns and Elections
Evidence Against Campaign Effects
A Model of Campaign Effects
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1992 elections aggregate analysis autocorrelation Bill Clinton campaign effects campaign events campaign information campaign period campaign season campaign variables candidate evaluations candidate support candidate's changes in candidate Chapter Clinton coefficients convention bumps convention period debate evaluations Democratic candidate Democratic convention dependent variable Dukakis effect of campaign effect of debates election campaign election outcomes electorate equilibrium level Figure focused forecasting model Gelman and King Geraldine Ferraro hypothesis important incumbent party individual-level influence June level of candidate level of support magnitude mean absolute error measure momentum Mondale national conditions noncampaign paign party identification pattern percentage points Perot political predispositions poll results preconvention predicted president presidential campaigns presidential elections presidential popularity press coverage public opinion Quayle Reagan relatively Republican convention respondents role of campaigns Ross Perot second debate surveys Table third debate tion U.S. Presidential Elections vice presidential debate vote decision vote intention voters voting behavior
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