EconometricsOriginally published in 1951, this volume reprints the classic work written by one of the leading global econometricians. Econometrics is structured as followed: Part 1 explains the relationship of Econometrics to Economics and Statistics. Part 2 outlines the process of formulating economic hypotheses mathematically and of subjecting them to a statistical test. Part 3 deals with the various component equations of the economic system - the psychic reactions, technical relations and reactions of business life and describes the process of setting up an economic model of the system as a whole. Part 4 llustrates the use of econometric methods for policy purposes. |
Contents
| 3 | |
| 5 | |
| 8 | |
| 11 | |
| 13 | |
5 Which Variables Should Be Included in the Relation? | 17 |
6 The Mathematical Form of the Relation | 19 |
7 The Way in Which the Time Factor Appears in the Relation | 22 |
37 The Demand for Investment Goods | 129 |
38 Substitution Elasticities | 133 |
39 Reaction Relations in the Financial Sphere | 137 |
40 Separate Markets Echo Principle Hog Cycle Building Cycle | 143 |
41 The General BusinessCycle Movement | 148 |
42 ComparativeStatic Systems | 155 |
43 Concluding Remarks | 156 |
Economic Policy | 159 |
8 Connection with Other Relations | 26 |
9 Supply Equation and PriceFixation Equation | 29 |
10 Macroeconomic Investigations | 33 |
11 The Description of Complete Systems | 37 |
12 The Movements of Complete Systems | 43 |
13 Stable and Unstable Equilibria The Purpose of Economic Policy | 49 |
Statistical Testing | 51 |
15 Determining the Components of Time Series | 53 |
16 More Refined Methods the Trend | 57 |
17 Determining and Eliminating the Random Component | 60 |
18 Determining the Seasonal Fluctuations and the BusinessCycle Component | 64 |
19 Simple Correlation | 66 |
20 Possibilities of Application in the Economic Field | 71 |
21 Multiple Correlation | 75 |
22 Evaluating the Uncertainty of the Results | 80 |
23 Simultaneous Equations | 83 |
24 The use of regression analysis in econometrics | 84 |
Results of Economic Research | 89 |
The Psychic Reactions | 91 |
26 Psychic Reaction Relations Engel Curves | 92 |
27 The Propensity to Consume and the Multiplier | 95 |
28 Demand Curves Agricultural Products | 99 |
29 Demand Curves Services and Industrial Products | 105 |
30 The Demand Function for All Goods Taken Together | 109 |
31 Dynamic Demand Functions | 113 |
Indifference Surfaces | 114 |
The Technical Relations | 117 |
34 The Production Function Macroeconomic Cost Curves | 119 |
35 Technical Development | 123 |
Reactions or Business Life | 127 |
The Use or Econometric Research for the Purpose or Economic Policy An Example | 161 |
45 Description of the Model and Its Alternatives | 162 |
46 Choice of Variables Boundary Conditions | 169 |
47 Directives and Instruments the Strategy of Economic Policy | 171 |
48 Isolated Wage Policy Consequences of the Double Function of Wages | 173 |
49 Isolated Price Policy | 176 |
50 Devaluation | 177 |
the Optimum Solution | 179 |
52 A Closer Examination of Tax and Subsidy Policy | 183 |
53 The Influence of Wages upon Employment under Various Side Conditions | 185 |
54 Summary Is It Possible to Translate Our Analysis into Verbal Deductions? | 188 |
APPENDIX | 191 |
The Use of Correlation Analysis in Economic Research | 193 |
56 Multiple Correlation Analysis | 194 |
57 Determination of Uncertainty in Results | 197 |
58 Simultaneous Relations | 200 |
59 Some Further Remarks on the Reduced Form Method | 203 |
60 General Remarks on Application of Correlation Method | 204 |
61 Some Successful Examples | 209 |
62 Conclusions of Political and Scientific Importance | 210 |
Statistical Evidence on tlie Acceleration Principle | 215 |
64 Statistical Verification | 220 |
LongTerm Foreign Trade Elasticities | 231 |
66 LongTerm vs ShortTerm Elasticities | 233 |
67 Measurement from LongTime Series | 236 |
68 Measurements from CrossSection Studies | 241 |
69 Concluding Remarks | 245 |
| 247 | |
| 249 | |
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Common terms and phrases
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