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ABC Sales adaptive forecasting analyst appropriate ARIMA ARMA model autocorrelation at lag autoregressive and moving B)Zt Box and Jenkins Box-Jenkins methodology Box-Jenkins methods Box-Jenkins model calculated chapter Chart Chi-square test coefficient values confidence limits control charts correlation deviation diagnostic checking differencing pattern error limits example exponential smoothing fore forecast error forecasting equation forecasting model homoscedasticity illustrate indicates large spike linear least squares LINES GIVE APPROXIMATE Mean absolute error model coefficients model development model identification monograph moving average model moving average operator nonstationary time series normally distributed observations Ohio power consumption order autoregressive model order moving average original time series past data plots present procedure Reader Exercise represents residual sample autocorrelation sample auto sample autocor sample autocorrelation function sample partial autocorrelation seasonal differencing second order autoregressive shown in Fig stationary process stationary series stationary time series Table tentative model Theoretical autocorrelation tion unlogged variance zero