Assessing Burma's Ceasefire AccordsZaw Oo, Win Min The Burmese military government and numerous ethnic minority armed groups have entered a series of ceasefires since 1989 in spite of the fact that most previous talks between 1949 and 1983 failed. Why did the parties enter into ceasefire accords? What is the nature of the accords? What have been the consequences? What are the future scenarios? Written by two Burmese researchers, this study investigates the underlying factors behind the ceasefires, explores the nature of the secretive agreements, and identifies the consequences affecting stakeholders in the larger context of peacebuilding, political settlement, democratization, and the state-building process. The study concludes that recent ceasefires present a significant first step in solving the sixty-year old civil war. However after more than 17 years, they have not brought about peace or political settlement. The government-initiated ceasefires carry a heavy military focus, primarily seeking to reduce military threats and gain better control over the borderlands while placing greater emphasis on state building than on peacebuilding. Nevertheless, the accords have allowed many ceasefire groups to maintain or increase their strength, develop their areas, and more importantly, ceasefires have resulted in the local ethnic population having relatively better lives. Many ethnic armed groups will continue to pursue their goals through political means, but if at least some of their objectives are not met, a resumption of violence cannot be ruled out. |
Contents
Endnotes | 61 |
Bibliography | 65 |
Internal Conflicts and StateBuilding Challenges in Asia | 67 |
List of Reviewers 200607 | 87 |
Previous Publications | 89 |
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alliance armed ethnic groups armed opposition armed struggle Asia Bo Mya border trade borderlands breakaway Burma Army Burmese Burmese military ceasefire agreements ceasefire areas ceasefire groups ceasefire leaders ceasefire talks Center Centre for Policy Chulalongkorn University Colombo constitution Delhi democracy Democratic discuss drug ethnic armed groups ethnic armies ethnic ceasefire groups Ethnic Conflicts ethnic leaders ethnic minority ethnic political parties ethnic resistance faction fighting forces former government’s human rights abuses junta Kachin Karen Karenni Kathmandu Kayah Kayan Khin Nyunt KIO leader KNDO KNLP KNPLF KNPP Kokang Kokang army Manerplaw military government Myanmar National Convention NDF members negotiations NMSP non-ceasefire groups offered Organization Palaung peace talks Policy Studies political settlement pro-democracy groups PSLP Rakhine refugees regime regime’s restrictions SLORC SNPLO SPDC Sri Lanka SSNA study group surrender Thailand troops University UWSA villagers wave groups wave of ceasefires Yangon