## Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models |

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### Contents

INTRODUCTION | 1 |

PRACTICAL APPROACHES TO THE EVALUATION | 17 |

STATISTICAL EQUATIONS | 70 |

Copyright | |

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Appendix I Section approximate assessment question atmospheric dispersion model Atomic Energy Agency Bq/kg ccdf coefficient of determination correlation coefficient degrees of belief derived deterministic answer deterministic model environmental transfer models Example 3.5 given IAEA International Atomic Energy Latin hypercube sample linear regression linear relationship logarithm lognormal distribution logtransformed m-tuples methods model components model prediction model validation normal distribution Nuclear Fuel Cycle numerical Oak Ridge observed values obtained P.O. Box parameter uncertainty analysis parameter values prediction value probabilistic answer provides quantitative uncertainty statements quantity of interest radioactive radionuclides random variable rank transformed reference unit release sample fractile sample values scenario selected simple random sample specific SPRCs standard deviation statistical tolerance limit stochastic variability subjective confidence interval subjective confidence level subjective confidence limits subjective pdf subjective probability distribution tion true 95 true mean value true value Type B parameter Type B uncertainty uncertain parameters upper 95 variance propagation Vienna