Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analyses of Forecasting Behavior and PerformanceFive essays deal with recorded expectational and forecasting data, which provide an opportunity for substantive and methodological inquiry into the basic questions on the formation and accuracy fo economic expectations. |
Contents
THE EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC | 3 |
RELATIVE ACCURACY ANALYSIS | 20 |
EXTRAPOLATIVE COMPONENTS OF FORECASTS | 29 |
Copyright | |
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accuracy analysis anticipations models automobile autonomous component autoregressive model average B₁ bias buying intentions Coef coefficients of determination column consumer attitudes convex correlation data errors decline deflated dependent variable distributed lag Durand data economic empirical equation error of forecast error-learning model estimated expected expenditures exponential extrapolation periods fit period fore forecast error forward rates function future spot rates Gross National Product households hypothesis implies income Index of Industrial induced component intender and nonintender intentions data intentions survey intentions variable Interest Rates Jacob Mincer linear liquidity preference liquidity premium mean square error measure Meiselman's naive model nonintender purchase rates observed optimal panel parameters ponent predicted quarterly random ratio regression coefficients relation relative residual sampling errors span of forecast statistics survey quarter survey variables t-Value Table term structure time-series tion total durables Treasury data variance weights Y₁ yield curve