An Appraisal of Short-term Economic ForecastsFirst report on a study of short term economic forecasting in the USA. Statistical tables, and references. |
Contents
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY | 1 |
A COLLECTION OF AGGREGATIVE ECONOMIC FORECASTS | 9 |
Average Errors of Intraforecast Changes for GNP and Indus | 12 |
Copyright | |
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actual and predicted actual changes actual values annual forecasts average errors base bias billion dollars business cycle chain change errors change forecasts change Predicted Changes and Errors Chart column comparisons Components of GNP computed correlation cyclical declines decreases directional errors economic errors in forecasts estimates extrapolative models F-ratio false signals fore forecast errors Forecast G Forecast Set forecasts of GNP forecasts proper GNP and industrial GNP forecasts government expenditures Gross National Product Gross private domestic increases index points individual forecasts industrial production forecasts intervals intraforecast changes Jacob Mincer level forecasts mean absolute errors mean errors mean square error multiperiod forecasts numbers of observations over-all overestimates periods covered Personal consumption expenditures plant and equipment predicted changes private domestic investment quarter R₁ ranks Ratio R2 regard to sign relative root mean square set F smaller Span of Forecast tion turning points turning-point errors underestimation variables