The Rand Strategy Assessment Center: an overview and interim conclusions about utility and development options
Rand Corp., Jul 1, 1983 - Political Science - 95 pages
The Rand Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC) is an ambitious multiyear effort to improve methods of strategy analysis by combining the best features of war gaming and analytic modeling. The approach is based on automated war gaming in which human teams are replaced by decision models (computer automatons) using heuristic behavior rules and by a force operational model treating: interrelationships among strategic and other forces, events in different theaters, and the operations of the several military services. The result is a capability for complex multiscenario analysis that has not previously existed. The power of the approach is due in large part to its emphasis on realism (relative to more standard approaches) and to the use of artificial-intelligence and force-modeling techniques that make behavior rules and other key assumptions both transparent and interactively variable. This report provides an introduction to RSAC work for those unfamiliar with it. It also provides, for those following the program more closely: a summary of recent conceptual and technical progress, interim conclusions about the utility of RSAC methodology, a plan for future development, and references to more detailed RSAC publications. (Author).
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OVERVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL APPROACH
rV POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS
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allies alternative analytic war plans Andrew Marshall applications artificial intelligence assumptions asymmetries automated war gaming AWPs Bandar Abbas battle outcomes Blue Agents campaign analysis capabilities civilian combat concept conflict data bases decision points decision trees decisionmaking Defense Guidance detailed deterrence fail discussion effort escalation example factors Force Agent force models force structure framework game run games with human human teams identify important initial issues Ivan lran major Mark II system ment military strategy multiscenario mutual assured destruction nario nonsuperpowers nuclear objectives OJCS operational art OPSAC options possible potential problems Rand range Red Agent Red and Blue requirements role RSAC approach RSAC system RSAC techniques RSAC war games RSAC's rule-based rules Scenario Agent Southwest Asia Soviet Union Sovietologists staff strategic forces strategic-nuclear strategy analysis Strategy Assessment Center superpower tactical tasking theater tions United users variables Winnefeld